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The Experiment Part One: How it started

I was in college in the early 1970s, and it was a decidedly odd time to be around. It wasn’t just the whole ‘sexual revolution’ nonsense, a trend created almost entirely out of whole cloth by the media, or the anti war movement. It was everything, including a resurgence in all things supernatural or ‘fringe science’.

The whole ‘alien astronaut’ nonsense was still at it’s height, sparked by the utterly ridiculous claims of people like Eric von Daniken in his Chariots of the Gods book that came out in the late 60s. The equally ridiculous Bermuda Triangle was being hyped up around that time, launching it’s own sub-industry of nonsense. Astrology was going through a resurgence as well. Hundreds, maybe thousands of people who should have known better were tramping through the woods in search of Bigfoot or Sasquatch or whatever you want to call it…

It was, as one of my friends at the time put it, ‘Crazy Season”.

And we, being a) bored, b) broke, c) curious, and d) broke (or did I mention that already?) So we spent way too much time sitting around drinking cheap coffee in the student union talking about — stuff.

One day someone showed up with yet another in what was apparently a never ending string of paperback books claiming ancient aliens built, well, everything because our ancestors were even stupider than we are and were utterly incapable of stacking one rock on top of another, and it sparked a conversation about the gullibility of the human race in general, and why people believe things that are just plain, well, stupid.

One of our professors was with us that day because he was a) bored, b) broke… Well, you get the idea. To be perfectly honest, I don’t even remember which one it was. It was, after all, about 45 years ago. But the general tone of the discussion changed from idle speculation, into how we could try to figure out how this all worked. I.e. why people believe things that are pretty much ridiculous.

We should, said he, run an experiment to gather information because that is, said he, what people in university did: run experiments. Well, that and drink a lot, but the less said about that the better.

We pointed out that there were some problems with this, the first being that we didn’t know what the hell we were doing.

He reminded us that neither did anyone else. That’s why you did those experiment thingies and all that, because you didn’t know what the hell you were doing. If you did know what the hell you were doing, you wouldn’t need to run the experiment in the first place.

Overwhelmed by the brilliance of his logic, we decided to go see if they still had 5 cent beers at the local pubs in the early afternoon so we could be blitzed before we had to go to our Russian Literature class and help numb the pain.

But he persisted, and eventually convinced us that this was, as they say, A Good Idea. So the question now, was experiment on what, who, why and how.

Well, we were interested in why people believe dumb things, so the experiment had to look at, well, people believing dumb things, right? he said.

Okay, that kinda made sense. So, how? And even more important, was this going to cost us money? Because what little money we did have was being reserved for the aforementioned 5 cent beers.

One of our little group regularly read the horoscope in the local paper. There really was something to it! he would tell us on a regular basis, despite the fact we mocked him, also on a regular basis, for believing that nonsense. So we considered something like a fake astrology thing, but that would have required resources we didn’t have, like how the hell do you publish the thing, for example. The campus had a newspaper, allegedly. No one had ever actually seen the newspaper, but the administration said we had one.

We finally figured that the cheapest option was some kind of fortune telling scam. You didn’t need a heck of a lot of equipment, it wouldn’t be that hard to do, wouldn’t require a lot of setup. All you needed was a fortune teller, some kind of prop to distract the subjects, and observers hidden around to watch what happened and break up any potential physical assaults.

Props… what would we do for props… Crystal balls were out. You have any idea what those things cost? And while Sandy offered the use of a snow globe she had, it didn’t seem really appropriate.

Finally someone came up with the idea of Tarot cards. There had been a resurgence of that in the last couple of years as well as all the rest. It was sufficiently mystical and spooky and all that fun stuff, and because no one really knew what the hell it was all about anyway, we didn’t need to do a heck of a lot of research and thus cut into valuable drinking time. All we had to do was make it up as we went along.

What about subjects/victims? We’d do what researchers had been doing for generations, use unsuspecting college students without their knowledge.

Great fun would be had by all.

We even came up with a budget: $3.97. Oh, goodie…

I was volunteered to get me hence to the local head shop to pick up a deck of these Tarot card thingies. And among the bongs, roach clips, water pipes, sex toys, over behind the copies of “Naughty Nurses” and “Slippery Stewardesses”, I found one and scurried off before someone saw me.

Now, dear friends, I don’t know about you, but I’m getting bored with this already. This is already too long, and it’s only going to get worse, so let’s take a break, and you can keep reading this in The Great Experiment Part Two.

The Future of Tumblr

You may not be aware of it, but I’ve had a blog over at Tumblr for years now, and I’m far more active over there than I am here for a variety of reasons. But that is probably going to be changing in the near future.

Tumblr was bought up by Yahoo a while back, and they have not exactly been kind to their new toy. They’ve made a number of questionable decisions that have seriously annoyed many of it’s long time users. Advertising has become far more intrusive, paid, commercial blogs are being injected into our feeds over there. They’ve tampered with the user interface, adding features that no one seems to want, while removing features that people liked.

A few months ago they removed the “Reply” function, replacing it with some kind of messaging function so you can send a message to the author of the blog, but not make a public comment. They really hyped up the message function. And hype was exactly what it was. We always could send messages to the author of a blog if we wished to. It was already part of the system. All their “new” version did was add an icon to the bottom of each post to make it easier to do.

Meanwhile, the Reply function, which was widely used and widely liked, was eliminated, causing such a storm of protest that they’ve been promising to bring it back RSN (Real Soon Now).

The biggest problem with Tumblr, though, is it’s parent company, Yahoo. Yahoo hasn’t had a very good track record. It’s been losing money for years. It’s only really profitable venture is Alibaba, and there is ever increasing pressure on the company to reorganize itself, shed it’s unprofitable ventures and try to become something it hasn’t been in a long, long time, a profitable business. It’s CEO is under fire constantly, with increasing pressure to either resign, or attempts to force the board of directors to fire her. There is even pressure now from some of the bigger stockholders to fire the entire board. And to be perfectly honest, there seems to be considerable justification for both of those actions.

Shortly after buying Tumblr, Yahoo announced some sweeping changes. There would be new terms of service which would regulate what content could be posted to try to eliminate ‘offensive’ material in an effort to make the service more attractive to advertisers. Censorship/filtering software to weed out ‘unsuitable’ content would be installed. Advertising would be injected into people’s dashboards. Paid blogs would be injected into people’s dashboards. Etc. etc. etc…

There was such an enormous outrage over these new policies that they were forced to back off. While the injection of advertising into the service did take place, they backed off on the threats of censorship and other types of content restrictions. I won’t go into all of the other attempts they’ve made to “improve” the service that have irritated and alienated it’s users. While they’ve backed off on some of the more potentially destructive changes they wanted to make, they’ve continued to do things that have irritated it’s users.

But to return to Yahoo and it’s problems…

Right now Yahoo has announced it’s drastically cutting staff, firing people left and right. It’s trying to either sell off or spin off different units of the company in order to shed it’s unprofitable ventures. One of the ideas the CEO put forward was that they’d spin off everything except Alibaba. Basically Yahoo would become Alibaba, and everything else would be dumped into a company that would immediately go bankrupt because all of Yahoo’s less than successful ventures would be rolled up into that new business.

That plan got shot down. Now they’re trying to sell off various parts of the business. If they can find buyers for the stuff. In any case, the handwriting is on the wall. Yahoo, as it is known today, is not going to exist for much longer.

What’s going to happen to Tumblr? I have no idea. Tumblr isn’t all that profitable, to be honest. It’s difficult, if not impossible, to monetize it to the extent they would like because doing so would drive away the people who create the content that draws viewers to the site in the first place, as Yahoo quickly discovered when it took over the service.

I think it’s highly likely that Tumblr will not remain the property of Yahoo for much longer. Whether they sell the service or spin it off into an independent company is something I don’t know. (Frankly, from what I’ve been reading in the financial press, I don’t think anyone at Yahoo knows what the hell they’re doing.)

My dissatisfaction with what’s going on at Tumblr and the uncertainty about the future of the service means I’m going to try to move more content over to grouchyfarmer.com in the future. Over here I don’t have to worry about injected advertising, dealing with the ridiculous way they keep changing the user interface, etc.

2017 Bolt EV: All-Electric Vehicle | Chevrolet

Introducing the 2017 Bolt EV: an affordable all-electric vehicle with over 200 miles per charge. Learn more about Bolt EV at Chevrolet.com.

Source: 2017 Bolt EV: All-Electric Vehicle | Chevrolet

It looks like Tesla is finally going to get some serious competition in the electric vehicle market. GM’s Bolt is going to get about the same driving range and be in the same price category as the Tesla III which is supposed to be coming real soon now.

But I look at all of this hype as being just that — hype. The numbers both companies are putting out are based on ideal conditions, not on real world driving.

Right now it’s about 6 degrees outside with a -15 degree wind chill. I’d be curious to see how the Bolt, or the Tesla, for that matter, would react. All of these range tests are done under ideal conditions, in warm weather. In the cold that much of the US experiences during winter, what will these things do? Just heating the cabin of the vehicle up to a bearable temperature is going to be a significant drain on the electrical system. Add to that the fact that in extreme cold battery efficiency drops, electronics begin to have problems, etc, struggling through 5 inches of wet slushy snow… I’d be willing to bet that the 200 mile range rather rapidly drops to 100 or less.

Forget about taking it on a long trip, not with it requiring nine hours to recharge, even with the optional 240 volt charging station.

And you can forget about that $31,000 price tag right away. The actual cost is about $37,000 for the base unit. The extra $7K comes from ‘tax credits’ which you may or may not qualify for. Eliminate the tax credit, add in all of the options, the “optional” 240 volt charging station and all the rest, and the real price of this car is approaching $50K.

Fix It Day Part II

In part two of Fix It Day, I finally got the FlashForge working again with assistance from eldest son. The thermocouple monitors the heat of the right extruder went bad, and the one n the left side seemed to be intermittent. I’ve had two new ones sitting on the shelf for two or three weeks now and we finally got it back together.

And, of course, we managed to reverse the polarity of the thermocouple wiring so it indicated temperatures were going down instead of up, so we had to re-wire that. Then we reversed them so left was right, etc. Had to re-wire that…

Handy hint! Label stuff! Would have saved us a good half hour of time if we’d bothered to label everything as we took it off when we disassembled it.

I really need to replace the kaptan tape on the plate, too, but I’ve been putting that off because it’s a royal pain in the neck. Everyone tells me it’s no big deal but I’ve tried everything, looked at videos, etc. Nothing works. Always end up getting air bubbles all over the thing.

Anyway, seems to be working, so I’m happy.

Agrimoney.com | Corn futures – will their, relative, resilience last in 2016?

Corn futures have fallen this year – but by less than soy or wheat. Can this outperformance last? Or will it fuel raised output, and price pressure?

Source: Agrimoney.com | Corn futures – will their, relative, resilience last in 2016?

Trying to figure out how the commodities markets are going to move is sort of like trying to herd cats. There are so many different factors involved that sooner or later chaos theory gets involved and no matter how good you are at it everything falls apart.

I really thought corn was going to go down the toilet when the numbers from the 2015 harvest began to come in. We’d had an increase in acreage planted, weather had been decent, yields were quite good, the market seemed poised to drop significantly… I wouldn’t have been surprised if the price fell to under $3, in the 2.8 to 3.0 range.

And, of course, I was wrong. Prices remained remarkably stable even as the harvest concluded with near record numbers.

Now everyone is trying to figure out what’s going to happen in 2016. And while there are the usual doom and gloom purveyors out there, along with the usual eternal optimists, if you ignore the extremes everyone else is indicating that corn pretty much isn’t going to move anywhere in the near future. Barring some kind of extreme weather event or something else that causes wide spread issues, the people who should know this stuff like Rabobank believe prices are going to remain fairly stable. Rabobank thinks it could hit 4.20 in the second quarter, but by the third quarter it will be dropping down to around what it is now.

Looking at the predicted acreage figures, long range weather predictions (which are pretty much a joke if you’re honest) and everything else, I’d agree with Rabobank.

There seems to be no drastic increase in demand in the works. Considering how low oil prices have dropped, there certainly isn’t an increased demand for ethanol. The only reason that industry is even around any more is because of government mandates. A lot of people, engine makers especially, would like to see ethanol just go away. (we just bought a chain saw and it’s accompanied with dire warning about running any kind of ethanol blended fuel in it. My new car… it doesn’t come right out and say ethanol blended fuel will kill it, but it comes damned close)

I don’t have a lot of money tied up in commodities so I don’t really have a horse in this race. I watch the markets mostly for the entertainment value (some of these people are, well, loopy to put it politely). So don’t take this as advice or a recommendation. Frankly I think you’re nuts if you invest more than a bit of mad money in the commodities markets.

It’s fun to watch though and try to figure out what’s going on.

Was That Steak Raised In The USA? Soon, It’ll Be Hard To Know : The Salt : NPR

Source: Was That Steak Raised In The USA? Soon, It’ll Be Hard To Know : The Salt : NPR

If you don’t know what the COOL (Country Of Origin Labeling) was, I don’t blame you. Most of the consumers I’ve talked to didn’t even know the laws existed.

COOL required meat packers to label their products by country of origin. The consumer had to be able to tell if that meat came from the US, Canada, Argentina, Mexico, China or wherever.

This doesn’t sound difficult to do, until you realize that the product in that package could be from two, three or even more places. It’s common practice these days for meat packers to make ground beef from lean meat from one country, mix in fat from another. Or meat from two or more different countries can be included in that stewing beef or chicken pieces package.

It doesn’t sound very controversial, either. Who would possibly object to knowing where their food comes from? I certainly didn’t object to it. I liked the idea. And so do most consumers. We’ve all heard the horror stories about dead pigs floating down rivers in China or the horrific melamine milk contamination that took place a few years ago.

The people who didn’t like it were countries outside the US like Canada and Mexico. They claimed that if they had to label their meat as coming from their country, people in the US might prefer to buy US products instead. And the World Trade Organization that polices such things agreed. So Canada and Mexico were poised to launch a massive increase on tariffs on a variety of US products that would have cost billions of dollars.

So Congress, with some justification, caved in and passed a repeal of COOL on Dec. 18

I have rather strong feelings about this. I rather liked the COOL regulations.

First, consumers seem, to me at least, to have the basic right to know where the products they purchase were made. They also have the right to know what’s in them.

Second, wanting to hide where your product comes from makes me a wee bit suspicious. What exactly is wrong with your product that you feel that if people knew it’s origin they wouldn’t buy it? What are you trying to cover up?

The thing I find most disturbing, though, is that increasingly these treaties are giving outside interests extraordinary power over our internal affairs. In this case, the WTO, Mexico and Canada were able to force a significant change to US law. The Trans Pacific Partnership, which politicians on both sides of the political spectrum have been pushing for hard, makes things even more concerning, giving individual corporations the power to do what Mexico and Canada did here. A corporation could, in theory, sue a country under the TPP, forcing that country to change it’s law.

This seems to be giving an enormous amount of power to not a government which (theoretically at least) is supposed to guard and protect the interests of it’s citizens as a whole, to an entity that cares for nothing but profit, even at the expense of the welfare of the people.

Bulletproof backpacks for kids? Here are 10 sick products you can buy in America — thanks to the NRA

Source: Bulletproof backpacks for kids? Here are 10 sick products you can buy in America — thanks to the NRA

For the paranoid on your Christmas giving list, Just in time for Christmas…

Just in case you’re thinking of rushing out and getting one of these, I should point out that they are all utterly worthless, so save your money. The ballistic armor police and military people wear is, despite the hype you see in these ads, not related to these products in any way. Just look at that photo of the kids cowering under those blankets… Come on, do you think those are going to provide those kids with any protection at all? Even if they did offer some protection, they don’t even cover the kid. They’re totally worthless. As are the ‘bullet proof’ backpacks, ‘bullet proof’ baseball caps and the ever popular bullet proof bible, because of course in a shooting situation that bad guy is only going to aim for that five square inch bible…

Wisconsin Farmers Say They’re Hurting From Ag Industry Consolidation | Wisconsin Public Radio

Many Wisconsin farmers reported a bumper crop this year, but it’s not translating into record profits. According to the Wisconsin Farmers Union, low commodity prices and consolidation within the agriculture industry is a big part of the problem.

Source: Wisconsin Farmers Say They’re Hurting From Ag Industry Consolidation | Wisconsin Public Radio

Back when I was farming with my father, there were about two dozen different tractor and ag equipment dealers and service centers within around 15 miles of our farm. There were dealers or service people in almost every small town and city all around us; Clark Mills, Whitelaw, Reedsville, Valders, Michicot, Keil, Forest Junction, Hilbert, Chilton… Pretty much every little town had either a dealer or an independent service facility.

Today your choices are one of four mega-dealers who have pretty much taken over the entire ag equipment market in three counties or more.

Competition basically doesn’t exist any more. If you don’t like the prices at a particular tractor dealer, think you’re getting shafted on repair bills, well, too bad, Charlie, there’s no where else you can go.

Same is true with feed companies, fertilizer sales, seed sales… Competition pretty much doesn’t exist any longer. Your choices are limited to one of an ever decreasing number of suppliers, and that’s it. If you think you’re being overcharged, think you aren’t being given a good deal, well, go somewhere else.

Only there isn’t somewhere else…

America’s obesity problem just keeps getting, well, bigger | Grist

New data from the CDC reveals that obesity rates among adults rose from roughly 35 percent in 2011 to 38 percent in 2014.

Source: America’s obesity problem just keeps getting, well, bigger | Grist

The problem isn’t fat, isn’t fast food, isn’t sugar, isn’t soft drinks. The problem is, frankly, us. We’re just plain eating too much.

The average adult in the U.S. now consumes about 500 calories a day more than the average adult did back in 1970. We don’t eat too much fast food. We eat too much of everything. Period.

Granted, we’ve had a lot of help along the way. Restaurants of all types have made portion sizes far, far larger than they used to. The quantity of food you get in a single serving at the average restaurant now is enough to adequately feed two or even three people.

But when it comes right down to it, it’s our own fault. We can’t blame corn syrup. We can’t blame carbs. We can’t blame fat. It’s us.

Agrimoney.com | Farmland Partners unveils $197m land purchase – and plans for more

The group takes its portfolio of US land nearly to 100,000 acres – in a deal which will provide collateral for funding for more acquisitions

Source: Agrimoney.com | Farmland Partners unveils $197m land purchase – and plans for more

I’m beginning to wonder if it’s time to start to become worried about this trend. Farmland Partners is just one of dozens of investment companies buying up enormous amounts of farmland. Not to farm it themselves, but to turn around and rent it at the highest prices they can possibly get.

Given the volatility of the stock, bond and commodities markets, and the ridiculously low interest rates being paid by banks for standard savings accounts, the desire to invest in a fairly stable and relatively profitable venture like farmland is understandable. Farmland values do fluctuate, true, but not nearly as wildly as stocks and commodities. Compared to those ventures, farmland seems a fairly safe investment.

And a potentially profitable one because the land doesn’t just sit there, it gets rented for as much as $200 – $500 an acre, depending on local demand.

But I get very nervous when I see more and more farmland being concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer owners, especially investment companies who have no vested interest in preserving the long term quality of the land, and only in making a return on investment. This practice makes it increasingly difficult for real farmers who want to get into the business to get started. Land has become so expensive in many parts of the country that it’s difficult or even impossible for a small start up farm to get off the ground without having the backing of outside investors.

Even worse, because the holding companies are going to charge the maximum rent they possibly can, those who can afford to rent the land are going to be forced to engage in the most intensive, potentially damaging, high chemical input farming techniques they can in order to maximize their own profits. This results not just in increased pollution from fertilizer, pesticide and herbicide run off, but also results in the degradation of the quality of the land and it’s fertility, causing even further reliance on intensive chemical intervention to continue to get the best yields.

Is this legal? Yeah. It is. At least in most states. Some states have restrictions on the amount of farmland that can be owned by out of state investors, but over the years those laws have been changed or even eliminated to permit companies like Farmland Partners to move in and take over. And I can understand the attraction. I own a fairly big stock portfolio, and the volatility of the market often makes me more than a little nervous. Farmland seems a far more stable, if a bit less profitable, investment for a lot of people.

While it may be legal and understandable, that doesn’t mean it’s the right thing to do.

Personally I feel the adverse effects of these companies; the artificial inflation of land prices, potential degradation of farmland, etc. outweighs the benefits.